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The lure of the sea: Pacific islands perched in glistening aquamarine, softly lapping waves caressing Europe’s beaches. Now, many of these bucket list hotspots are about to be reclaimed by our beloved sea. Naturally, we know all about rising sea levels. Cities like Venice as well as entire coastal regions, a. o. in The Netherlands, are acutely threatened by this development. But what can we do to stave off the danger? 海的诱惑：太平洋诸岛浮栖在蓝宝石般熠熠的海面上，海浪爱抚地拍打着欧陆海岸。而如今，我们深爱的大海却亟欲呼诉其遗愿。人们自然都知晓“海平面上升”，事实上，像威尼斯这样的水城以及荷兰的其他沿海地区都正笼罩于海平面上升的威胁之下。那么我们该如何延缓这份威胁呢？
In deep water
身居深水
Current projections are less than rosy. According to scientific estimates, the earth’s temperature will increase by 4-5 °C this century alone, leading to a sea level rise of approx. 50 cm by 2100. This prognosis, however, does not account for accelerated polar deglaciation, which could bump up estimates to 170 cm. 目前未来预测不甚乐观。据科学家估测，地球气温将在本世纪内上升4-5°C，由此导致至2100年海平面将上升约50厘米。然而，这种预言并未考虑冰川加速消融，若加上此因素，海平面上升高度预计涨至170厘米。
Ready for another, more extreme extrapolation? If all of the polar ice caps melt, we can expect a sea level rise of 60 m, leaving just the top third of New York’s Statue of Liberty peeking out from the Hudson River estuary. “Fortunately, this is not likely to happen in the foreseeable future,” or so oceanographer and professor Georg Umgiesser explains, who explores such scenarios at the Italian Institute of Marine Sciences, ISMAR 准备接受另一种极端预想吗？倘若极地冰盖都融化了，我们可预料海平面将上升60米，仅留下位居前三的纽约自由女神像从Hudson河里露出尖角。然而海洋学家Georg Umgiesser教授解释说：“幸运的是，在可预知的未来这不可能发生。”他在意大利海洋科学研究所（ISMAR）提出了许多类似的戏剧性场景。
The potential of preventive measures 可能的防御措施
Climate change and the resulting greenhouse effect are in full swing. Even a truly radical gear change and turnaround in climate politics would leave our planet fighting the repercussions for a century to come. Against this background, scientists and architects join forces to develop protective solutions for people and the ground they stand on. 气候变化及其引起的温室效应方兴未艾，哪怕是气候政策中一个真正激进的齿轮的改变和转向都将导致我们的星球为迎接新世纪的到来与这种反击抗衡。基于此，科学家和建筑师共同努力提出保护人类及其生活家园的措施。
Venice, for example, plans to ward off floods through its gigantic Mose project, scheduled for completion in 2016. Outsized concrete doors will seal off the city and Adriatic Sea to prevent the city from drowning – yet also imply the destruction of the Venetian lagoon’s unique ecosystem. Professor Umgiesser also assigns top priority to climate protection and a respect for nature. Nevertheless, when considering Venice, he would opt to preserve the UNESCO World Heritage Site instead. “I think I speak for most people when I choose the preservation of Venice,” he adds. 例如威尼斯打算凭借其预计将于2016年完成的大型莫斯计划防避洪灾。特大混凝土门将城市与亚得里亚海分隔开以防止城市被海水浸没，也意味着威尼斯湖独特生态系统的破坏。Umgiesser教授也给予保护和尊重自然很高的重视。但是，一想到威尼斯，他则转而选择保护联合国教科文组织世界遗产。他说：“我认为当我选择保护威尼斯时，我代表了大多数人类的意愿。”
Like two percent of the total land mass – and many densely populated hotspots of human – Venice is situated less than ten meters above sea level. London, New York, Sydney, Mumbai, Vancouver, and Tokyo are among the cities endangered by climate change, but even more so large stretches of Bangladesh, The Netherlands, and the US East Coast. Around ten percent of the world’s population call these coastal strips their home. Some municipalities have put tangible measures in motion, including New Orleans and Rotterdam – the latter more than six meters below sea level. After weathering a catastrophic flood, Rotterdam instigated a comprehensive storm tide prevention program called Deltaworks. 就像2%的陆地，以及许多人口密集的文化热区一样，威尼斯位于海平面以上不足10米。伦敦、纽约、悉尼、孟买和东京均在受气候变化威胁的城市之列，甚至是孟加拉国、荷兰，及美国东海岸也名列其中。约十分之一的世界人口定居在这些沿海地带。包括新奥尔良和鹿特丹在内，许多地区的一些市民心中已有了应对灾难的切实措施，其中鹿特丹有不少于六米处于海面以下。在遭受了一次毁灭性的洪灾后，鹿特丹提出一项名为Daltaworks的复杂风暴潮防御计划。
A second severe threat, land erosion, is tackled via different means: In 2011, Holland’s southern coast was treated to the so-called Zandmotor, a scheme to move 21.5 million cubic meters of sand from coastal waters to the beach, creating a massive dune and headland that is naturally distributed by wind, waves, and currents to provide protection and a new home for local flora and fauna. Thanks to this one-in-a-kind project, the coastal region no longer needs to shore up their beaches at regular intervals.
第二次遭遇土地侵蚀威胁时通过多种手段得以应对——2011年，荷兰南部海岸采用被称作Zandmotor的应对方案来为当地动植物提供保护和居所，此方案计划从浅海域搬移21，500，000立方米沙子以借助风与海浪自然形成一道巨大的沙丘和岬。多亏了这项人性化计划，该海岸区不再需要定期加固它们的海岸了。
Yet is this mammoth undertaking wise and future-proof? Not really, according to architects and scientists alike. Georg Umgiesser explains that “The Netherlands are actively considering raising their dykes.” A few years down the line, today’s stipulated levee dimensions will no longer be relevant or applicable. What then? 然而这长毛巨物能经受住智慧与未来的考验吗？对于像建筑师和科学家这样的人来说答案是否定的。Georg Umgiesser表示：“荷兰正积极考虑提高堤坝”。多年后，现在所规定的堤坝维度将不再有意义和适用，那么之后该怎么办呢？
Floating cities 浮游城市
A Dutch starchitect leads the way: Koen Olthuis and his Waterstudio.NL (The Hague) focus on planning and realizing water-based architectural projects; the results are often floating cities that drift on the surface in scattered arrangements. His reasons for building on water are twofold. Low-lying Holland is an artificial creation and constantly battling the incursion of water, making it high time and tide to find new solutions. “We need to develop proactive, not defensive solutions to these issues. When the water starts to threaten you, you build on it!” states Olthuis. On a different note, there is a global demand for alternative urban development visions beyond high-rise constructs and expansive blueprints with a large footprint. In future, metropolises will grow beyond the boundaries of terra firma. 一位荷兰明星建筑师的主导：建筑师Koen Olthuis和他的Waterstudio.NL建筑事务所（海牙）专注于计划并实现以水为基的建筑项目，结果往往是分散漂浮于水面的浮游城市。他设计水上建筑的原因有二：一方面低洼的荷兰是人类创造的，且一直在与水的入侵抗衡，使得寻求新的解决办法成为当务之急。Olthuis表示：“我们需要开发积极主动而非被动防御式的应对措施”。另一方面，一种全球需求已提出——对于可替代的城市发展愿景超过了高速化城市建设与遗患重重的广阔蓝图。今后大城市将突破陆地边界向外蔓延。
Built from buoyant concrete to allow these floating houses to adjust to the tides and imminent flooding, the resulting habitations don’t quite meet onshore standards yet. They certainly lack green spaces. It will take a strong and seismic social shift to turn water-based living into a mainstream choice and encourage decision-makers to back sizeable investments into this living concept and attract more people to a life on the waves. 使用轻质混凝土建造的这些浮动房屋可适应潮汐和即将面临的洪水，但目前尚未达到海岸建筑标准。它们缺乏安全空间。要想使水基建筑成为主流选择，鼓励决策者投入可观资金支持这种居所理念，同时吸引更多的人在浪里生活，需要翻天覆的社会转变。
One thing remains certain: Future city planning will undergo some drastic changes – and people will simply have to adapt to these new and unknown circumstances. 确信的是，未来城市计划将经受许多剧变，人们将不得不适应这些新的未知环境。
原文标题：Water-proofing the Future——A flood of visions 原文地址：http://betterymagazine.com/stories/water-proofing-the-future/
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